Knee Leads Odds Down Field

Football Betting Lines

Fellow tight end Travis Beckum went down with a torn ACL in his right knee in the second quarter.

 

Replays on TV showed Ballard trying to run and cut on the sideline, perhaps hoping to get back in the game, then collapsing and grabbing his knee. He had 38 catches for 604 yards and four touchdowns this past season.

 

"Over the past number of years, Korey has been a central figure in our defense and on our team," said vice president of football operations and GM Wally Buono. "Having him under contract is a big part of our foundation moving forward and this is a very important extension."

 

Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Betting the underdog in the Super Bowl is never a sure thing as evidenced by Green Bay's win and cover as the favorite in the 2011 contest. However, with the Giants victory as 2.5-point underdogs last Sunday, the team getting points has now covered eight of the last 11 Super Bowls. That translates to a 73% winning percentage. For my money, it doesn't get better than that. Whoops, it does get better than that, as the under in the Super Bowl has come through six of the last eight years. That equates to a 75% winning percentage. For some strange reason, the total in this year's game was between 53 and 54 (depending on when and where the bet was placed). The 21-17 final score produced a final total of 38, far below the posted number.

 

Another point that had to be in the minds of those folks betting the under was that five of the previous seven Super Bowls ended with a final score below the posted number. Not only that, the under came through victorious in the three other times the total was over 50 since 2000.

 

The underdog and under are two of the key trends that must be followed on a year-in, year-out basis. Another wager that should be used is taking the field goal or safety as the first score of the game instead of the touchdown.

 

Another winning percentage-based wager has to do with which player wins the MVP award. Quarterbacks have won it 64% of the time since 1999 with Eli Manning bringing home his second award. That percentage sounds great at first, but one has to remember that there are two quarterbacks in every game. The key is to pick the right one.

 

Eli Manning's 9-4 MVP odds were incredibly high, particularly since he had defeated the Patriots in the last two meetings. When making prop bets, it is best to find wagers that not only have a high probability of occurring, but also have odds that benefit the bettor.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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