AFC East: Jets Limp to Finish, Mangini Crawls Away

Football Betting Lines

12/30/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Every gambler knows the risks associated with going all-in.

Jets head coach Eric Mangini was well-aware of the message the organization was sending when, in the wake of a 4-12 campaign, the team made a series of moves aimed at getting the club back in the playoff field.

The trade for Brett Favre in August was the most notable, but by no means the only transaction that was supposed to put the Jets on a collision course with the playoff field. The trade for nose tackle Kris Jenkins, signing of pass rusher Calvin Pace and offensive linemen Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, and mid-season acquisition of cornerback Ty Law were other high-profile moves made with obvious intent.

As the season began, NFL observers expected the Jets to be much-improved, at the very least. Then, when Tom Brady went down to a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 and stripped the Patriots of their unquestioned favorite status in the AFC East, Gang Green was supposed to be the club that stepped into the vacuum. When New York ascended into first place with a supposedly telling 34-13 beat-down of the previously unbeaten Tennessee Titans on Nov. 23, the then-8-3 Jets looked like they were making good on all of the lofty predictions.

Then it all came crashing down, and Mangini watched his once-huge pile of chips disappear, one by one.

The Jets would win just one more time the rest of the year, getting an extremely lucky bounce to beat the last-place Bills in Week 15. Included in their 1-4 season-ending stretch were three double-digit losses to teams - the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks - that would finish .500 or worse. Sunday's 24-17 home loss to Chad Pennington and the playoff-bound Miami Dolphins sealed the Jets' fate as a third-place, non-playoff team, and Mangini - to the surprise of few - was made the scapegoat.

Owner Woody Johnson and general manager Mike Tannenbaum made the decision, and announced it to the world less than 24 hours after the Miami loss was complete.

"Mike and I felt in our judgment that it was time now to make a change," said Johnson. "This is not a decision that we reached yesterday or 10 minutes ago. This is a decision that was running through the season. Mike and I talk every day. One of the things that we talk about is the performance of the coaches, the team and how we're doing with our fans who we represent. We don't take this decision lightly. We respect Eric for what he's done, but we want to build on the successful foundation that he's laid."

On balance, Mangini's tenure doesn't look all that dreadful, especially when his body of work is compared to predecessors like Rich Kotite (4-28), Pete Carroll (6-10), and Bruce Coslet (26-39). The former Patriots defensive coordinator had two winning seasons in his three years on the job, going 23-26 including a playoff loss to the Patriots in his first season. The team's five- game improvement this year could be used as evidence that things were headed in the right direction under Mangini.

But the final five weeks of the 2008 season fly in the face of that contention, and with teams like the Dolphins (1-15 to 11-5), Falcons (4-12 to 11-5) and Ravens (5-11 to 11-5) displaying more significant, playoff-bound turnarounds, it was management's judgment that this team had underachieved.

All of the epitaphs for Mangini will include early mention of Favre's name. The team's late-season collapse will be forever linked to the 39-year-old legend's dreadful play over the 1-4 finish, when he threw two touchdown passes, nine interceptions, and never posted a passer rating above 61.4.

Given that Favre had posted three straight 100-plus passer ratings prior to the five-game swoon, speculation about whether the quarterback's arm was healthy or not has run rampant. Favre said he would have an MRI on his shoulder this week, and the results of that procedure will likely have much to say about his future with the club. Favre has not committed to returning in 2009, but the Jets seem to be in his corner despite his miserable December play and possible health concerns.

"We, as an organization, want Brett back," said Johnson. "I think that will unfold over the days and weeks from now. We're really focused right now to start a thorough search for a new coach. We'll go on from there for players."

Whether the new head man would want Favre, and vice versa, will be a subject of debate in the coming weeks and months. Early reports linking Bill Cowher and Marty Schottenheimer to the vacancy suggest, that unlike Mangini, the target this time around will be a proven, veteran coach who is unlikely to bow to the whims of a future Hall of Fame quarterback.

"We will, very quickly, start a process to find, as Mike often puts it, 'looking under every rock,' for talent," said Johnson. "That's the talent to lead this team on to the next successful level. This process has started right now. We will be very, very thorough and select somebody that can succeed Eric and build on the good foundation that he and people in management have built."

BILLS: For at least a couple more days, Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron will twist in the wind.

After the Bills concluded their own collapse with a 13-0, wind-aided loss to the Patriots on Sunday - the team's first home shutout defeat since 1983 - team owner Ralph Wilson began to deliberate about the future of Jauron, who has posted identical 7-9 marks in each of his three years on the job.

On Tuesday, Wilson was reportedly to meet with Bills COO Russ Brandon, head of scouting Tom Modrak, and team treasurer Jeff Littmann to discuss Jauron's status.

"I have nothing definitive tonight to give you," Wilson told The Buffalo News on Monday. "We had a meeting [Monday]. We're going to have a meeting [Tuesday] and [Wednesday], and then you'll have your answer."

Jauron reportedly signed a three-year contract extension earlier this season, but following the team's 2-8 finish, one of the main components of Wilson's discussions with team brass will likely center on the cost of buying him out.

The Bills are not an organization with a reputation for throwing money around needlessly, and Wilson might determine that a buyout of Jauron, coupled with the dollars necessary to lure a new head coach with any type of profile to Western New York, might be too steep a price to pay.

The availability of other coaches might also impact Wilson's decision.

The hottest candidates with a track record (Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, and probably even ex-Bills linebacker Marty Schottenheimer) are a pipe dream for Buffalo, and those perceived to be among the brightest coordinators (Steve Spagnuolo, Leslie Frazier, Jim Schwartz, Josh McDaniels, Rex Ryan) are probably going to rate Buffalo low among their would-be suitors.

And, though the number of head jobs turning over was expected to reach double digits, as of Tuesday only three coaches - the Lions' Rod Marinelli, Browns' Romeo Crennel, and Jets' Eric Mangini - had been let go, further reducing the potential candidate pool.

Those factors weigh in Jauron's favor, though the team's dismal finish and Wilson's reputation in regard to coaches do not.

Since Marv Levy departed following the 1997 season, no Buffalo coach has lasted more than three years with the organization.

DOLPHINS: At the midway point of the 2008 season, when the Bills, Jets, and Patriots were tied at 5-3 atop the AFC East, and the Dolphins sat one game back at 4-4, it was hard to imagine that Miami would not only vault all of its competitors into the top spot in the division, but also be the only entry from the contentious East that would make it into the playoff field.

But that's exactly what happened, as the once-2-4 Fins finished off a 9-1 stretch of football with Sunday's 24-17 win at the Jets and advanced to the postseason for the first time since 2001. The division title was Miami's first since 2000, and the Dolphins reached the record books as the first club to go from 1-15 to the playoffs the next year. The team's 10-game improvement matched the best ascent in league annals, tying the 1999 Colts' move from 3-13 to 13-3.

As it turned out, Miami needed every one of its 11 wins to extend its season, as the Patriots, also 11-5, found themselves on the business end of a tiebreaker and missed the playoffs altogether.

Say what you want about the Dolphins and some of their competition (Miami's only win over a playoff team came against the 8-8 Chargers), but it is impossible to argue that a Fins team that went 5-0 on the road during its 9-1 run either backed into the field or failed to earn their spot in the January tournament.

"I honestly think this was a combination of a lot of hard work from a lot of different people," said Tony Sparano, nearly certain to win NFL Coach of the Year honors in his first year on the job. "Bill (Parcells), [GM] Jeff Ireland and all of our administration staff, but more importantly, the players. The off-season programs to make this kind of turnaround...I think the players in that locker room are the ones that made this possible."

Miami's first-round opponent will be Baltimore, also the Dolphins' most recent playoff opponent back in 2001, as the Ravens will travel to Miami to partake in Sunday's early game.

The Ravens were 27-13 winners at Miami in Week 7.

PATRIOTS: Heading into Sunday's game, the New England Patriots needed just a little bit of help in order to make the playoff field. They went begging.

The Patriots controlled what they could, getting to 11-5 with a 13-0 win over Buffalo, then watched doors slam all around them. Their shot at the second AFC Wild Card disappeared when the Ravens put the hammer down against the Jaguars, 27-7, and moments later, the Dolphins' 24-17 victory over the Jets put New England on the business end of the AFC East tiebreaker.

The Pats became the first 11-5 team to miss the playoffs since the 1985 Broncos, and added some more ammunition to the argument of those who think the playoff bracket needs to be expanded.

New England is out of the postseason money for the first time since 2002, when it was on the wrong side of a 9-7 tie-breaker with the Jets for the division (Miami was also 9-7 and out of the field that year). With Sunday's victory, however, the Patriots finished in at least a tie for the AFC East top spot for the eighth consecutive time, dating back to 2001.

"I couldn't be prouder of the team and what it has done in the last four weeks after the Pittsburgh game," said head coach Bill Belichick on Monday. "When you go at something like we have since the end of July - you go from meetings to practice, to watching film, to game planning, to making personnel decisions, to playing a game, to wrapping it up [and] going on to the next game. You are just on that treadmill and it's going pretty fast. It's always - even though it happens every year - kind of sudden when it stops. You still get a little bit of a jolt and I think that is kind of where we are now that the season ended abruptly yesterday. As I said, even though I've been through a lot of them, I don't think you are ever quite ready for it when it happens.

"I think that everybody that participated in this season, in the 11-5 season, has a lot to be proud of. That includes all of the above: the players, the coaches, the organization, the scouts, everybody. We feel good about a lot of the things that we accomplished this year. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough for us to keep playing next week and so we're disappointed with that. But what we did accomplish this year, I think it goes to the hard work of all of those people that are involved. We had some things to deal with. We had four West Coast games. We had some weather games. Our last five games of the year were all played in difficult weather situations. I understand the teams on the other side of the field played in those same situations; I'm not looking for any sympathy there. I'm just saying those are challenges for our team to meet, whether it is rain, wind, snow, or a combination. You can go right down the list. There were a number of things that we dealt with this year and I think that - organizationally, including the operations people setting up the trips on the West Coast, to the players, to the coaches, to our medical staff, to everybody - they worked hard and there were a lot of positive things this year. I wish it could have been a little bit more. I think there are a lot of things that we did that I'm proud of the way we did them."

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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