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05/14/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only one horse has a chance to win the Triple Crown and that's Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt will take the next step towards racing immortality this Saturday in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.
Super Saver benefited from a dream trip two weeks ago when jockey Calvin Borel hugged the rail throughout most of the Derby before drawing off to an easy 2 1/2-length victory over the fast-closing Ice Box. Borel has now won three of the last four Triple Crown events, including the 2009 Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra.
Can Super Saver duplicate his previous outstanding performance? It's quite possible, but the morning line favorite will not have the luxury of a sloppy race course this time around. That could be a huge factor since two of his three lifetime wins have come on off-tracks. In addition, the WinStar Farm homebred will not be running at Churchill Downs, a surface he absolutely adores.
There's no doubt the Derby winner is a very good colt in a year in which the three-year-old crop is loaded with average horses. But he has never posted back-to-back wins in his seven-race career, and his odds this coming Saturday will be much lower than the 8-1 the public received two weeks ago.
Super Saver's main competitor is Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky. The Bob Baffert-trained colt comes into the Preakness with a different jockey for the first time as Martin Garcia replaces Garrett Gomez in the saddle.
Trouble is this colt's middle name and the Kentucky Derby was just another in a long line of miserable trips for the son of Smart Strike.
Most public handicappers shied away from Lookin At Lucky in the Derby after the colt drew the inside post position in the 20-horse field. The two-year-old champ felt the consequences right away getting pushed from the eighth spot all the way back to 18th in a matter of seconds.
Lookin At Lucky still made an impressive move, closing from 18th to sixth as the field moved through the stretch, but he ran out of gas inside the final furlong without improving his position.
Even if Lookin At Lucky receives a better trip this Saturday, winning the Preakness might be asking a lot for this California-based three-year-old. It's been almost a decade since the last time a West Coast horse (Point Given in 2001) won the Preakness.
Moreover, it's hard to bet on a horse that consistently finds himself in tight quarters each and every race, especially as the probable second choice.
OTHER KEY CONTENDERS
Paddy O'Prado sports in-the-money finishes in six of his last seven appearances, including a third in the Kentucky Derby.
After racing just off the lead in his two previous starts, the son of El Prado came off the pace at Churchill Downs getting a similar rail trip to Super Saver. The only difference was the winner had a free and clear path while Paddy O'Prado had to veer in and out behind tiring horses.
There's no denying the fact he could improve on his third-place effort with a better trip, but don't forget, he still has won only one race in his seven- race career, not the prototypical record for a Preakness winner.
Super Saver's other three main challengers did not run in the Kentucky Derby.
Schoolyard Dreams makes his first start in six weeks after a dismal fourth to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial, and after the race, trainer Derek Ryan revealed the horse was less than 100 percent due to a slight throat problem.
Prior to that effort, the son of Stephen Got Even made a huge middle move in the Tampa Bay Derby, wresting the lead away from Super Saver around the final turn before losing to Odysseus by a nose. On the negative side, that race was already his third start in 2010 while Super Saver was making his first appearances in over three months.
Also, it's unclear whether Schoolyard Dreams will be as effective at the 1 3/16-mile distance compared to 1 1/16-miles, so proceed with caution at the betting windows.
Caracortado is another three-year-old that finished fourth in his latest race. However, the gelding had a legitimate excuse in the Santa Anita Derby as he was interfered with by a fast fading Lookin At Lucky.
Trainer Michael Machowsky has trained Caracortado up to the Preakness working him seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 in preparations for the colt's first trek over 1 1/8-miles.
Lightly-raced Yawanna Twist is the final horse with a shot at crossing the wire first on Saturday. His 30-1 morning line suggests little chance, but don't be deceived by that number. The stakes-placed three-year-old has as much talent as any other horse in this field.
His second-place finish in the Illinois Derby was a much better effort than it looked on paper. The race was only his fourth ever start and first away from his home base in New York.
It was also the first time Yawanna Twist stalked the leader on his own as he sat a length or two behind American Lion for the first six furlongs. He then ran head-and-head with the pacesetter from the far turn until the eighth-pole before failing to keep pace over the tiring and heavy Hawthorne surface.
Even with the loss, he still finished over 11 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. That experience should give the son of Yonaguska the bottom he needs to improve even more in his fifth career start.
Yawanna Twist is also bred to handle the extra distance as both his grandsire (Cherokee Run - 1993) and damsire (Oliver's Twist - 1995) finished second in the Preakness.
Selections: 1) Yawanna Twist; 2) Super Saver; 3) Lookin At Lucky
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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