Father-to-be Johnson cradles consecutive wins

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/28/2010 - Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jimmie Johnson recently went 10 races without a victory, many speculated that the four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion was in a season-slump. Now that Johnson has won back-to-back races at Sonoma, CA and New Hampshire, it's time to put that theory to rest.

Thanks in part to Marcos Ambrose's misfortune in the closing laps at Sonoma, Johnson claimed his first road course win. Ambrose held the lead during a caution with seven laps remaining, but lost his track position after he turned his engine off to conserve fuel and then had trouble restarting the car. That allowed second-place Johnson to take the lead for good.

It was a different story for Johnson in New Hampshire, where he had his hands full with Kurt Busch in the closing laps. Just after the final restart with eight laps to go, Busch made a bump-and-run move on Johnson to take the lead.

But Johnson was set on returning the favor, and doing so with aggression.

"I was livid," Johnson said. "I was so [ticked] off that he got into me, and I almost lost it at one point. Just kind of sliding and it took off and the tires started chattering, and that's usually when you're turned around.

"Once I got back going and I was still in second, I thought, 'Man, I hope I catch you. I look forward to this if I catch you.' And my incentive was not necessarily to pass him. All I had to do was get to his bumper, and I was going to win the race, if he gave me that option by moving me out of the way."

Johnson reeled in Busch and then pulled even with him before Johnson made the winning pass with less than two laps to go.

Unlike some races this season, Johnson and Busch prevented New Hampshire from erupting into a post-race pit road skirmish.

"The thought was ten points winning would look a lot better stacked in our deck than his chip count, that was the original thought," said Busch, who ended up finishing third after Tony Stewart passed him on the final lap. "Driving into turn three, I had all intentions of passing him on the inside and trying to cut underneath him at the apex. I just got into him a little bit in the left rear and nudged him up, and we were able to squeak on by.

"Your motive is always to pass a guy clean, and you always want to make sure that when you do pass him that he's not completely upset with you, and then we'll go and race again, if he's going to come back and try to pass me at the end. He did, and he did great."

Johnson's fifth win placed him in a tie with Denny Hamlin for most victories in the series so far this season. Each driver who qualifies for the championship Chase is awarded 10 bonus points for each race he wins during the regular season. There are nine races remaining before the Chase begins in September at New Hampshire.

"The ten points are really important," Johnson said. "It's nice to be even with Denny, and to have a gap on some of the other guys right now."

Indeed, these are good times for Johnson. His wife, Chandra, is expected to deliver the couple's first child any day soon. If her delivery occurs during an upcoming race weekend, Camping World Truck Series regular Aric Almirola will serve as Johnson's backup driver.

Daytona (July 3) and Chicagoland (July 10) are the next races on the schedule before Sprint Cup takes its second-to-last off-weekend of the season.

"I know it's kind of a weird situation," Johnson said. "[Almirola] is really hoping for the opportunity, and I know he'll do an amazing job given the opportunity, and then I want to stay in my ride and try to win as many races as I can.

"It just all depends on when the little baby decides to make her move and when she wants to come into the world, and if she's anything like her mother, she'll be late, so I should be fine, which puts us into the off-weekend, nice and deep."

In recent years, it's usually Tony Stewart who heats up in the summer time. It appears Johnson has replaced Stewart as the summer sensation this year. If Johnson remains hot for the next couple of months, just imagine what he will be like during Chase, the time when he really shines.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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