Playoff-hopeful Phils return home to battle Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia Phillies All-Star second baseman Chase Utley recorded just four runs batted in during August. At the pace Utley's at so far in September, his RBI total for the month will be astronomical.

Utley and the National League Wild Card-leading Phillies are back at home following a successful road trip out West and will open a three-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers tonight at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies swept San Diego in three games, took two of three matchups in Los Angeles, then defeated Colorado last night in a make-up game of a previous rainout.

Philadelphia rallied from an early 4-0 deficit and scored nine runs in the top of the seventh inning for a seemingly comfortable 12-7 advantage in Thursday's game. Utley, who drove in a pair of runs in Wednesday's win over the Dodgers, highlighted the seventh-inning deluge with a grand slam. He had already recorded an RBI single earlier in the frame.

Ryan Howard blasted a two-run shot for the Phillies, who have won three in a row and sit two games in front of San Francisco in the Wild Card standings. Utley ended with six RBI at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

"I imagine there are a lot of guys that have driven in a lot of runs here," Utley said on the team's site. "There's a lot of room for hits. The ball carries extremely well here. You put those two together, you're going to have some success."

The Phils also pulled within two games of NL East-leading Atlanta after the Braves were downed by the New York Mets on Thursday. Jayson Werth belted a solo homer in the seventh inning -- Philadelphia's third of the frame -- and went 3-for-5 with three runs scored.

Colorado, however, responded with three runs in the bottom half of the seventh thanks to an RBI hit from Jonathan Herrera and a two-run single by Dexter Fowler. The Phillies were able to hold the Rockies to a run the rest of the way, though, and closer Brad Lidge notched his 19th save in the ninth.

Joe Blanton started for the Phillies and allowed six runs -- four earned -- on 10 hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings for the no-decision. Antonio Bastardo got the win with an inning of relief.

The Phillies will also host Florida for four games on the residency and will try to erase the memories of a four-game sweep at the hands of Houston the last time they played at home. Cole Hamels will take the first crack at doing that when he toes the rubber tonight.

Hamels was 0-3 in his last eight starts despite a surprisingly decent 2.83 earned run average before beating the Padres in a 5-0 win last Sunday. He hurled eight scoreless innings and allowed four hits with six strikeouts and no walks to improve to 8-10 with a 3.31 ERA in 27 starts this season.

Hamels is 4-5 in 14 home starts and defeated Milwaukee on May 16 of this season at Miller Park, where he allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 triumph. The lefty and 2008 World Series MVP is 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is just trying to play consistent baseball right now and was just swept in three games at Cincinnati. It won all three games against Pittsburgh before coming up empty against the Reds and suffered a 6-1 setback on Wednesday. Chris Narveson pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball for the Brewers, but Todd Coffey absorbed the loss for giving up three runs in a six- run seventh inning.

"I didn't want (Narveson) to pitch the whole game and get a loss," said Milwaukee manager Ken Macha. "He was going to be in there in the seventh inning until he got a baserunner."

Narveson also had a team-best two hits and drove in Milwaukee's only run in the fifth inning.

The Brewers, who have lost seven of 10 games, will pin tonight's pitching duties on Chris Capuano. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 5.06 earned run average in 18 games (3 starts) this season and previously pitched in last Saturday's 8-7 win versus Pittsburgh. He was fortunate the results were in Milwaukee's favor after he gave up six runs and six hits in three innings of relief.

Capuano is 0-1 with a 3.54 ERA in four career appearances, three of which have been starts, against the Phillies.

Philadelphia swept a three-game set in Milwaukee back in May and has won five of the past seven meetings between the two ballclubs.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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